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2018 Atlantic hurricane season (Inactive Scenario - GaryKJR)
Seasonal forecasts Season summary ImageSize = width:799 height:200 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = mm/dd/yyyy Period = from:05/01/2005 till:11/01/2005 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:05/01/2005 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<39_mph_(0–62_km/h)_ id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117 km/h)_ id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(118–153_km/h)_ id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h)_ id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–130_mph_(178–209-km/h)_ id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_131–155_mph_(210–249_km/h)_ id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥157_mph_(≥252_km/h)_ Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:05/25/2005 till:05/31/2005 color:TS text:"Alberto (SS)" from:07/12/2005 till:07/13/2005 color:TS text:"Beryl (TS)" from:08/02/2005 till:08/06/2005 color:C1 text:"Chris (C1)" from:08/17/2005 till:08/21/2005 color:C1 text:"Debby (C1)" from:08/25/2005 till:08/26/2005 color:TD text:"Five (TD)" from:08/29/2005 till:09/04/2005 color:C4 text:"Ernesto (C4)" from:09/08/2005 till:09/21/2005 color:C3 text:"Gordon (C3)" from:09/09/2005 till:09/12/2005 color:TS text:"Florence (TS)" barset:break from:09/17/2005 till:09/21/2005 color:TS text:"Helene (TS)" from:09/25/2005 till:09/27/2005 color:TS text:"Isaac (TS)" from:10/16/2005 till:10/23/2005 color:C1 text:"Joyce (C1)" barset:break barset:break bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:05/01/2005 till:06/01/2005 text:May from:06/01/2005 till:07/01/2005 text:June from:07/01/2005 till:08/01/2005 text:July from:08/01/2005 till:09/01/2005 text:August from:09/01/2005 till:10/01/2005 text:September from:10/01/2005 till:11/01/2005 text:October TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(617,30) text:"Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale)" Storms Subtropical Storm Alberto A broad area of low pressure formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on May 21, as the result of the interaction between an upper-level low and a weak surface trough. The low drifted slowly westward and then northward through the Caribbean Sea as it gradually organized. By 15:00 UTC on May 25, the strongly sheared low had organized sufficiently to be classified as Subtropical Storm Alberto while situated about 55 miles (90 km) south of Cozumel, Quintana Roo, which made this season the fourth-consecutive season in which storms formed earlier than the official start of the season on June 1. After remaining nearly stationary for the next day, Alberto began to move northwards. After entering the Gulf of Mexico, where wind shear lessened and sea surface temperatures were above average, Alberto began to intensify. Early on May 28, it reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h). Afterward, it began to weaken as it neared the Gulf Coast, making landfall near Laguna Beach, Florida, at 21:00 UTC with winds of 45 mph (75 km/h). The cyclone weakened to a subtropical depression shortly after landfall, later becoming tropical over Tennessee. On May 31, Alberto finally transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone while over northern Michigan. Tropical Storm Beryl Hurricane Chris Hurricane Debby On August 3, a disorganized tropical wave emerged off the western coast of Africa. The wave failed to develop into a tropical cyclone as it traveled westward through the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic due to persistent dry air and moderate amounts of wind shear. Ten days later, it entered the Gulf of Mexico and interacted with a large area of disturbed weather. Early on August 14, an area of low pressure formed as a result of this interaction; later that day, the National Hurricane Center began to monitor the system for possible tropical cyclogenesis. Favorable conditions in the area allowed the system to gradually organize and intensify as it meandered generally eastward. At 18:00 UTC on August 17, after a scatterometer pass confirmed that it had developed a closed circulation, the disturbance was designated as Tropical Depression Four. On the afternoon of August 18, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Debby while located approximately 180 miles (290 kilometers) northwest of Havana, Cuba. Tropical Depression Five Late on August 24, a tropical wave, which was accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, exited the west coast of Africa. At 12:00 UTC on August 25, it developed into Tropical Depression Five while located approximately 200 miles (322 kilometers) west of Dakar, Senegal and immediately reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 1004 mbar (29.65 inHg). Shortly after forming, the depression began to entrain dry air, which caused it to weaken steadily. Early on August 26, the storm skirted the southernmost islands of the Cape Verde archipelago, causing localized flash flooding which damaged numerous homes and led to the death of five people; the majority of these fatalities occurred on Fogo Island. At 00:00 UTC on August 27, the depression degenerated into an open tropical wave. Hurricane Ernesto Hurricane Gordon Tropical Storm Florence Tropical Storm Helene On September 9, a synoptic-scale cold front, which stretched from northern Mexico to Iowa, spawned a low pressure area over Texas. Four days later, the low emerged into the Gulf of Mexico. Initially, high amounts of vertical wind shear in the system's vicinity prevented it from intensifying significantly. However, by September 15, wind shear unexpectedly decreased, allowing it to develop organized, deep convection. At 00:00 UTC on September 17, the disturbance was designated as a tropical depression while located approximately 100 miles (161 kilometers) east of Corpus Christi. At 06:00 UTC on September 18, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene. As a result of weak steering currents, Helene meandered near the coast of Texas for more than a day before accelerating northward on the afternoon of September 19. The next day, Helene made landfall near Quintana, Texas as a 45 mph (75 km/h) tropical storm. After making landfall, Helene quickly weakened as it lost much of its convection due to land interaction. At 12:00 UTC on September 21, Helene degenerated into a remnant low while located over eastern Texas. Tropical Storm Isaac On September 13, a large tropical wave, accompanied by intermittent showers and thunderstorms, exited the west coast of Africa. For more than a week, strong and persistent vertical wind shear prevented the system from organizing or strengthening substantially. By September 23, however, the system began to develop centralized convection as environmental conditions around it became more favorable for gradual intensification. On the afternoon of September 25, the wave developed into Tropical Depression Ten while located approximately 220 miles (360 kilometers) north of Barranquilla, Colombia. Twelve hours later, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Isaac. Initially, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expected that Isaac would peak as a minimal hurricane before making landfall in Belize. However, an approaching trough increased westerly vertical wind shear around Isaac; consequently, Isaac was only able to strengthen slightly, peaking with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 1000 mbar (29.53 inHg), before much of its convection became displaced from its low level circulation center (LLCC). By late on September 26, Isaac had weakened to a tropical depression. The next day, Isaac degenerated into a remnant area of low pressure. The remnants of Isaac were monitored for several days, but ultimately failed to redevelop. The precursor to Isaac brought gusty winds and moderate rainfall to the Lesser Antilles and various Caribbean islands, causing $15 million in damages and killing 1 person. Shortly after Isaac was classified as a tropical depression, a tropical storm watch was issued for the northern coast of Honduras and the eastern coast of Belize. At 00:00 UTC on September 26, the watch in place for the northern coast of Honduras was upgraded to a tropical storm warning, while the watch in place for the eastern coast of Belize was upgraded to a hurricane watch. When Isaac weakened back to a tropical depression eighteen hours later, both the tropical storm warning and hurricane watch were canceled. In Honduras, 6 people died when a mudslide destroyed several houses in the community of Ahuas. In northern Nicaragua, flash flooding washed away houses and caused extensive property damage. The remnants of Isaac dropped heavy rainfall in Belize, causing widespread flooding which killed 6 people and damaged over 500 homes. In total, Isaac caused 19 deaths and $90 million in damage. Hurricane Joyce Storm names The names listed below were used to name storms that formed in the Northern Atlantic during 2018. Names that were not used during the season are marked in gray. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season. This is the same list used in the 2012 season with the exception of the name Sara, which replaced Sandy. Retirement On April 25, 2019, at the 41st session of the Regional Association Hurricane Committee, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) retired the name Ernesto from its rotating naming lists. For the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, it will be replaced with the name Edgar. The List for 2024 Season effects Category:Atlantic hurricane seasons Category:GaryKJR Category:GaryKJR seasons Category:Season predictions Category:Gary's Atlantic hurricane season scenarios